题目：Bayesian Potency Estimation In Aquatic Toxicity Testing

嘉宾：张晶 博士 （美国俄亥俄州迈阿密大学统计系）

时间：2014年6月26日下午4:15

地点：管理科研楼10楼1018会议室

单位：管理学院统计与金融系

摘要：
Effectively and accurately assessing the toxicity of chemicals and their impact to the environment continues to be an important concern in ecotoxicology. Single experiments conducted by a particular laboratory often serve as the basis of toxicity risk assessment. These laboratories often have a long history of conducting experiments using particular protocols. The Bayesian analysis for estimation of potency based on a single experiment as well as incorporating the experimental information from historical experiments will be discussed in the present study. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to estimate the relative inhibition concentrations (RIp) of a toxicant and flexible ways of using historical control information were suggested. The methods were illustrated using data sets produced by the test for reproduction in Ceriodaphnia dubia in which the number of young produced over three broods was recorded. A natural extension of the Bayesian approach was also introduced to analyze the brood-specific responses.  In addition, modeling approaches of analyzing multiple endpoints (hatching, survival, deformity) will be also be discussed.